There is growing evidence that disinformation is not just a nuisance of the digital age. It is a tangible security risk. Increasingly, falsehoods rooted in politically extremist beliefs are linked to real-world harm, including criminal activity and violence. Europol’s latest terrorism report highlights a worrying pattern: many suspects involved in extremist acts had been immersed in online ecosystems filled with conspiracy theories, anti-government narratives, and manipulative content.
The events of 6 January 2021 in the United States, when a mob stormed the Capitol based on false claims of electoral fraud, offered a stark illustration of how disinformation can translate into violence. Similar dynamics have since been observed elsewhere, from pandemic-related conspiracies to politically motivated unrest across different regions.
And yet, despite these clear warning signs, the relationship between disinformation and crime remains underexplored. This is precisely the gap that the FERMI project’s new White Paper seeks to address.
A White Paper That Fills a Critical Gap
The EU-funded FERMI (Fake News Risk Mitigator) project is one of the few initiatives in Europe focusing specifically on the link between disinformation and crime. Its White Paper, “Behind the Curtain: Challenges and Gaps in the Strategic Analysis and Combat of Disinformation Campaigns”, provides a comprehensive and timely contribution to this debate.
The document does not simply restate known concerns. It brings together empirical insights, technical lessons, and policy recommendations grounded in real research and operational experience. For policymakers, security practitioners, and researchers alike, it offers a rare, structured overview of a topic that is often discussed in fragments.
If there is one takeaway, it is this: the disinformation and crime nexus is real, measurable, and still insufficiently addressed in both research and policy.
What the White Paper Shows
The FERMI White Paper makes a compelling case that disinformation can play a direct role in radicalisation and criminal behaviour. It highlights how false narratives, especially those rooted in conspiracy theories or anti-establishment sentiment, can gradually shape perceptions and lead to action.
It also brings clarity to a concept that is often used loosely. Disinformation is defined through three core elements: misleading or false content, an intention to deceive or gain advantage, and the potential to cause public harm.
Importantly, the White Paper situates these dynamics within real-world contexts. It examines cases ranging from pandemic-related conspiracies to politically motivated narratives across Europe, showing how online content can spill over into offline incidents.
This is not abstract theory. It is a grounded analysis of how information environments can influence behaviour at scale.
Why You Should Read It
What makes this White Paper particularly valuable is its combination of depth and practicality.
First, it openly addresses the challenges that still limit our understanding of disinformation. These include restricted access to social media data, fragmented datasets, and the difficulty of analysing narratives across platforms and languages.
Second, it provides insight into the technical and operational realities of countering disinformation. The FERMI project developed tools to track how false narratives spread, analyse their sentiment, and assess their potential impact on crime.
Third, it engages seriously with legal and ethical constraints, including data protection requirements and the implications of the EU AI Act for law enforcement use cases.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it offers a clear set of policy recommendations. These range from improving data access and standardisation to strengthening societal resilience through education and awareness.
Taken together, these elements make the White Paper more than a research output. It is a roadmap for future action.
From Insight to Action
The FERMI White Paper also sends a broader message. Tackling disinformation cannot be limited to content moderation or external threat analysis. It requires a more holistic approach that considers how narratives evolve, how they interact with societal vulnerabilities, and how they can lead to harm.
This means improving cooperation between policymakers, law enforcement agencies, researchers, and technology providers. It also means investing in better tools, clearer definitions, and stronger public awareness.
Above all, it means recognising that disinformation is not only a challenge for democracy. It is a challenge for security.
A Call to Engage with the Evidence
For anyone working on digital policy, security, or information integrity, the FERMI White Paper is essential reading.
It offers a structured, evidence-based perspective on an issue that is often oversimplified. It highlights gaps that still need to be addressed. And it provides concrete recommendations that can inform both policy and practice.
If we are serious about understanding how disinformation shapes our societies, and how it can lead to harm, then engaging with this work is a necessary step.
You can explore the full White Paper here.