The following description of the third pilot shows how the police might use tools from the FERMI project to assess community resilience and respond to a left-wing extremist threat scenario in Munich. This scenario unfolds during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) when the police notice activities by violent left-wing extremist groups aiming to spread disinformation and organise violent protests. Using FERMI tools, the police analyse the threat and take appropriate measures.

Background: Left-Wing Extremism at the MSC

MSC gatherings are known to come with security challenges posed by the radical left. In Bavaria, (violent) protests against proceedings that are seen and portrayed as furthering what is considered a global order that serves the interests of the wealthy at the expense of the needy are a key form of left-wing extremism.[1] High-level political gatherings, such as the MSC and the G-7 summits, are a case in point. Accordingly, the Bavarian police, including street patrols, mobile units, special forces and politically motivated crime experts, needs to be on guard. The Bavarian State Office of Criminal Investigation (BLKA) coordinates intelligence gathering, surveillance and analysis related to politically motivates crimes. The BLKA’s Department of State Protection (Staatsschutz) specialises in tracking, analysing and countering extremist activities and is responsible for identifying individuals or groups that could pose a threat. This includes monitoring known left-wing extremist groups plans for MSC protests, as well as any intelligence suggesting potential for violence. 

Demonstrators with left-wing extremist beliefs that gather in central Munich to protest the MSC mostly belong to the anti-imperialist and anti-militarist strand of left-wing radicalism. Western, in particular German, arms procurements draw the ire of such activists, so do military campaigns, especially in a NATO framework.[2] Whilst other parts of the far left have expressed their solidarity with Ukraine and lambasted Russia for its incursion into a sovereign country, NATO’s support for Ukraine has still become a special focal point of the radical left’s anti-MSC activities. Quite tellingly, some groups such as the Nurembourg-based “Organisierte Autonomie” (“Organised Autonomy”) and the “Antifaschistischer Aufbau Muenchen” (“Anti-fascist Base Munich”) have placed the blame for the war in Ukraine squarely on NATO’s shoulders,[3] which implies a certain susceptibility to disinformation. 

The Use of the Relevant FERMI Tools to Study and Strengthen Community Resilience

First, community resilience is assessed using the Community Resilience Management Modeller. This tool evaluates how vulnerable the local population is to disinformation and extremist influence by estimating the likelihood and severity of violent acts. In Bavaria, the Bavarian State Office of Criminal Investigation (BLKA) is primarily responsible for creating situation reports on extremist groups. Within the BLKA, the State Protection Division specialises in analysing and assessing threats from politically motivated crimes, by gathering and synthesising intelligence from various sources. By calculating potential costs and risks, the tool provides a baseline for understanding the community’s susceptibility.

The police then categorise the threats and evaluate potential countermeasures. Through an analysis of disinformation campaigns on social media, the tools identify ongoing mobilisations of extremist followers calling for violence. Given the high level of threat, the police plan immediate countermeasures. A risk assessment suggests three specific actions: consulting experts on the ideology of violent left-wing extremism, raising public awareness and forming a multi-agency task force.

To ensure that all relevant data is available in real-time, the police check the synchronisation of tools. By integrating the Community Resilience Management Modeller with additional tools on the platform, smooth data flow is maintained.

The following police actions are implemented:

1. Engaging Experts: The police consult experts on left-wing extremism to better understand the threat’s background and dynamics. The local Kriminalpolizei (Politically Motivated Crime Unit) unit specialising in politically motivated crime works with the BLKA to investigate, document and prosecute politically motivated offenses, such as vandalism, assault, or unauthorised gatherings by extremist factions. They often work in post-event follow-ups, analysing the actions of left-wing extremist groups to gather evidence for legal action.
2. Information and Prevention Campaigns: The police launch targeted information campaigns to educate the public about disinformation and to strengthen community resilience.
3. Establishing a Multi-Agency Task Force: To coordinate and effectively implement measures, a task force with members from various agencies is formed. The Coordination Center (Einsatzleitung) brings together leaders from each unit to monitor real-time intelligence and situational reports, directing resources where needed.
4. Operational Planning: Based on the threat analysis, the police develop preventive security measures around the MSC. They monitor potential hotspots and deploy additional personnel.
5. Response Measures in Case of Violence: If violence occurs, the police ensure a swift and effective response to restore order and secure the safety of conference participants. The Coordination Center plays a central role in deploying specific resources to respond to the left-wing extremist activities and adjusts tactics based on the evolving security situation.

Using FERMI tools, the police can conduct a comprehensive community resilience analysis and proactively address the challenges posed by violent left-wing extremism, thus ensuring the safety of the Munich Security Conference. While integrating advanced technologies can improve policing efficiency, it is crucial to address public concerns regarding privacy and potential overreach. Transparent communication about the use and benefits of such tools is essential to maintain and build public trust. 

In summary, pilot programs that leverage advanced analytical tools for community resilience can enhance public trust by demonstrating police effectiveness and proactive engagement. However, it is vital to balance technological integration with transparency and community involvement to ensure these initiatives are perceived positively.

[1] Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern, für Sport und Integration, Verfassungsschutzbericht 2023 (München, 2024), p.265-266.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.